Smiling Eliza Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree 2.40 8/12/18 - The Verdict

Last years winner Famous Milly had a similar path to Aintree, starting on the flat then second to Mitchouka over hurdles at Punchestown before going on to win at Aintree. That was as good as it got because she had a season ending fall next time out at Chepstow in a race won by We Have A Dream. 

The year before the winner was Evening Hush for Evan Williams. She came from the flat to win first time over hurdles before winning again at Aintree. She was 2nd at chepstow to Defi du Seuil and was ahead of Bedrock, who recently beat Samcro at Down Royal, at Kempton. She was well behind Defi Du Seuil again in the 2017 Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and was beaten by A Hare Breath at Sandown before suffering a fatal fall at Ascot.

Smiling Eliza goes up against 7 declared in this years renewal. Winner on the flat and double winner over hurdles. Her last run was in a charity race and should be discounted. Jack Kennedy is booked to ride and he has won on her both times she has won over hurdles, most recently winning a race won by Espoir D'Allen last year. She's mostly run on good ground but Gordon Elliott doesn’t think there’ll be a problem unless it gets heavy. Chica Buena also began hurdling in August and looks like she goes on all types of ground.  50/1 second to Chief Justice at Listowel and twice behind Eliza over hurdles but has won her last 3 and has same jockey onboard from last two wins. Had Golden Jeffrey a length and a quarter behind at Musselburgh. The same horse was almost 9 lengths behind Smiling Eliza at Perth.

Dance To Paris won on hurdling debut at Fakenham in October over 2m 3 yards on good   ground after only ever finishing among the places in flat racing. Trainer is 5/20. Giving Glances was rated 85 on the flat and a 16 length winner on hurdling debut at Hereford on good ground. Sister of two other hurdle winners for yard. Lady Camelot is sired by Camelot and has won on heavy on the flat but still a maiden over hurdles. She was 25 lengths behind Dawn Hoofer who beat Eliza by 4 lengths on flat at The Curragh and 5.5 lengths ahead of Our Legend on flat. Our Legend finished a 6 length 2nd to Eliza at Punchestown. 

Liffeydale Dreamer had one win on the flat and finished ahead of Lady Camelot in only hurdle to date. This will be Miss Mumtaz first time over hurdles after a peak rating of 75 on the flat but only one win. Travel Lightly was fourth in a listed race at Wetherby that Smiling Eliza was entered for but not declared. She was 27 lengths behind the winner in that and 20 lengths behind Chief Justice in second. Won next time out over hurdles in modest company when staying on well.

Verdict - Whether Smiling Eliza can handle soft ground is the biggest question. With the continued rain and the ground going from good to soft to soft the danger is that it's heavy by race time. The other main danger is Chica Buena who is going for 4 in a row but she's up 10lb from her most recent win and has twice been behind Eliza. Dance To Paris won on hurdling debuts and  from a yard in good form. Early market leader Giving Glances won by a wide margin on debut and has hurdle winning pedigree. Of the rest, Lady Camelot has won on heavy on the flat but Smiling Eliza is a game little mare, the star of the GERC and she is taken to send the travelling Gordon Elliott Racing Club members into orbit.